December 3, 2013
Because I am a numbers and stats guy, and numbers never lie, I want to share some recent stats about the Scotts Valley real estate market for the month of November, 2013. The following stats are very telling in regards to what the market is doing and what to expect in the near future.
Average List Price of Homes in November – $860,000
This falls pretty much in line with the average home in Scotts Valley. Although there are many homes priced much higher then this, there are also many homes priced much lower.
On average, an $860,000 home will buy you:
- 4 bedrooms
- 2.5 bathrooms
- 2,150 square feet of living area
More Homes Sold (19) in November then were listed (18)
Demand slightly exceeded the supply in the month of November, but not by much. Currently there are 71 total homes for sale or pending in Scotts Valley with 32% of them being pending sales (offers accepted but not yet closed) and 68% being active listings (offers not yet accepted) which is pretty much in line with what we have seen for some time now.
This means that the market is steady with not much major movement at this moment compared to the past few months.
Average Sales Price Drops
The Average Sales Price in October was the highest all year coming in at $867,264, but the Average Sales Price in November dipped quite a bit to $670,994. No, this does NOT mean that homes dropped in value by almost $200,000, what it means is that buyers in the lower price ranges came out this past month and were shopping for homes. This is something I have been talking about for a while in that the lower price range is a very hot and active market.
Sales Price to List Ratio Drops AGAIN
The amount people are actually paying for homes versus the list price is dropping. The following are the past 3 months of sales price versus list price:
- September – 103.0%
- October – 98.3%
- November – 97.6%
What does this mean? It means that while the market continues to be an active market, buyers in November were able to negotiate on the price a little more then they were able to do so in October and much more then if they had bought in September when on average home buyers paid 103% in September versus 97.6% of the list price for homes in Scotts Valley. That is not a small difference as it represents a 5.4% change.
To put things in perspective, on average a property priced at $850,000 in September would have sold for an average of $875,500. Last month an $850,000 home would have sold for $829,600, which is a difference of $45,900.
Did homes go down $45,900 in two months? No. Remember, the $850,000 home that sold for $875,500 in September now has a value of at least that amount and maybe a little more as we are seeing homes continue to appreciate at a pretty high rate this year so it could be close to $885,000 if not more. Once a home sells and closes escrow, it sets a standard for the neighborhood that determines value. The home listed at $850,000 today may have had a value of $825,000 in September and is now worth more because of recent closings coming in at higher price ranges.
In addition, each home is different and is located on different streets and may have many other features or upgrades, or may not be in as good condition then some other comparable homes for sale. The information I am referring to applies to the general market. Many times two homes that are priced at $850,000 even in the same neighborhood will sell at different price ranges because of the features and condition of the homes.
Am I confusing you yet? Probably. It is and yet it is not too complicated to figure out and each home and situation is different. I would be happy to meet with you to go over your specific scenario. But to put it in a nutshell, home buyers are able to negotiate a little more on homes today then they were just a couple of months ago.
The Prognosis and Conclusion is…..
As I stated above, buyers have a great opportunity to buy today and are able to negotiate price and terms more than they have been able to do so for some time. There are some great home buying opportunities right now in just about all price ranges.
Homeowners who have been wanting to move up or move down are in a good position to do so as the market will remain strong both ways, as a seller and as a buyer. Interest rates on 30 year fixed rate mortgages did go up a little recently, but not by much and are still hovering somewhere between 4.25-4.5%.
If you are thinking of selling your home, consider reading my Home Seller Mega-Pack that goes over reports and strategies to get top dollar for your home. Selling your home for top dollar is not just putting your home on MLS, there is a strategy that ALL home sellers should implement. You can get my free Home Seller Mega-Pack by clicking here.
That’s your Latest Scotts Valley Housing Market Report!
Robert Aldana is a 29+ year licensed real estate veteran with American Dream Realty in Scotts Valley, and also a long-term resident and homeowner here in town. He is the founder of MyScottsValley.com and the popular local news and events page at Facebook.com/MyScottsValley.
He was voted as the “Rave” winner in the category of “Favorite Real Estate Agent” in the Scotts Valley Press Banner’s contest for 2014, and also awarded the Scotts Valley Man of the Year in 2014 for his contributions to the community.
Robert was also a nationally syndicated real estate journalist and was a highly sought after interviewee on the topic of real estate by local, national and even international media, in addition to appearing on HGTV and local NBC’s “Best of the Bay”. Many of his articles and interviews can still be read at RobertAldana.com, DeadlineNews.com, RealtyTimes.com, Forbes.com, among many other real estate and finance news sites and publications.